⬡ CLOSURE STATUS
StatusCLOSED
DurationDay 54 of disruption
SinceFeb 28, 2026
AIS vessels today10–93% of avg 138
Vessels trapped in Gulf45+
Normal flow~20M bbl/day
Pipeline bypass~7M bbl/day (35%)
Unroutable gap~13M bbl/day
⬡ BYPASS PIPELINES
Saudi East-West (Petroline)~5M bbl/day
UAE ADCOP (Habshan-Fujairah)~1.5M bbl/day
Iraq-Turkey (Kirkuk-Ceyhan)~0.5M bbl/day
⬡ WAR RISK INSURANCE
Premium (was 0.125%)0.8%–1.5%
VLCC transit cost (was $125K)$2M–$3M
Gard / Skuld / North / LondonCANCELLED
AIS counts are lower bounds — vessels frequently disable transponders in conflict zones. Trapped vessels anchor near Dubai (~25.2N/55.3E), Abu Dhabi (~24.5N/54.4E), Fujairah (~25.1N/56.3E).
Source: hormuztracker.com
⬡ ENERGY PRICES (Apr 14 2026)
Brent Crude$94.45 +31.2%
WTI Crude$95.72 +47.3%
EU Natural Gas (TTF)€43.15 +43.8%
US Gasoline$4.12/gal +38.7%
⬡ HISTORICAL CONTEXT
Peak oil spike this crisis+52% (Brent)
OPEC 1973 spike (comparison)+300%
Gulf War 1990 spike+130%
Suez 2021 (6 days)+4%
⬡ LNG IMPACT
Qatar LNG exports blocked~77M tonnes/yr
% of global LNG trade~20%
Key buyers affectedJapan, S.Korea, EU
Prices as of Apr 14. Live crude via Polygon on header. Pre-crisis baseline: Brent $72, WTI $65.
⬡ MAJOR CARRIERS (9/9 SUSPENDED)
MaerskSUSPENDED · 14 vessels trapped
MSCSUSPENDED · 15 vessels (109K TEU)
CMA CGMSUSPENDED · Cape reroute active
Hapag-LloydSUSPENDED · 6 vessels (25K TEU)
COSCOSUSPENDED · 5 vessels
ONESUSPENDED · ~147 ships affected
HMMSUSPENDED · Cape reroute
EvergreenSUSPENDED · Cape reroute
PILSUSPENDED · 4 vessels trapped
⬡ EMERGENCY SURCHARGES
Container surcharge$1,500–$4,000/TEU
Cape reroute adds+14 days transit
Hapag weekly cost$40–50M extra
⬡ SELECTIVE PASSAGE
Iran operating a permission-based transit regime for select flag states. Most commercial carriers consider transit commercially unviable due to insurance withdrawal and military risk.