Ensemble Probability Forecaster

21 Claude personas + 1 Grok X-fade → weighted ensemble → edge vs. market-implied

API Keys (stored locally only)

Anthropic API Key

Polygon API Key

Grok API Key (xAI)

Keys are stored in localStorage and never transmitted except to the respective APIs. Grok is optional — without it, the ensemble runs Claude-only.

Market Setup

Ticker

Strike

Expiry (YYYY-MM-DD)

Direction

Market Delta (optional)

IV (optional, %)

Catalyst / Read-through notes (optional, free-form)

Injected into every persona's prompt as # USER CONTEXT / EVENT NOTES. The News-flow, Catalyst, Bull, and Bear personas will weigh it most heavily; others may discount it. Don't write the conclusion you want — paste the observation, let the personas reason.

Ensemble Probability Forecaster

API Keys (stored locally only)

Market Setup

Market Context

Persona Probabilities

Dispersion Statistics

Weighting Scheme

X Sentiment Fade Signal (Grok, contrarian)